Updates: Past TMT Predictions’ greatest hits and (near) misses - Deloitte

Abstract

Deloitte has published an update reviewing the accuracy of its previous Technology, Media, and Telecommunications (TMT) industry predictions. This analysis evaluates the long-term trends identified, distinguishing between successful forecasts (hits) and those that failed to materialize (near misses). The publication serves as a critical self-assessment and guide for future trend spotting in the volatile global tech landscape.

Report

Key Highlights

• Retrospective Analysis: The core of the article is a comprehensive look back at Deloitte’s past TMT predictions over various time horizons.
• Trend Validation: The report highlights specific technological and market movements that were successfully predicted, reinforcing key industry directions.
• Learning from Errors: It openly addresses predictions categorized as "near misses," offering insights into why certain trends were either over-estimated, under-estimated, or mis-timed.
• Focus on TMT Sector: The analysis covers a broad scope of topics typically associated with Technology, Media, and Telecommunications, including connectivity, digital transformation, and compute architectures.

Technical Details

• As a review of historical predictions, the article focuses on evaluating macro market performance against established forecasts rather than introducing new technical specs.
• Areas of Review: Past predictions likely covered technological milestones such as the adoption rate of advanced networking (e.g., 5G/6G), the growth of edge computing infrastructure, cloud consumption dynamics, and shifts in the semiconductor supply chain (e.g., custom silicon trends).
• Methodology: The report utilizes Deloitte’s proprietary forecasting methodology, comparing actual market data and industry events against the quantitative and qualitative metrics defined in their original prediction reports.

Implications

• Strategic Planning: Companies and investors in the tech ecosystem, including those involved with RISC-V, gain valuable context by understanding which major TMT trends have proven durable and reliable over time, aiding long-term strategic planning.
• Ecosystem Validation: If Deloitte's past predictions included major shifts toward open standards, custom silicon, or decentralized hardware—all areas critical to RISC-V growth—the validation of those predictions reinforces the direction of the RISC-V architecture.
• Risk Assessment: The "near misses" section is crucial for the RISC-V community, indicating potential areas of market resistance, slower-than-expected adoption, or competing technologies that might require mitigation efforts or adjusted investment timelines.
• Market Confidence: The review provides an external, authoritative assessment of the technology trajectory, helping to boost confidence among partners and developers invested in the predicted future of computing.